US trucks will produce 10% less carbon dioxide and consume 10% less fuel within a decade under the last major plank of Barack Obama’s climate policy.
The second phase of a new benchmark for medium- and large-sized trucks will cut more than 1bn metric tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions and 2bn barrels of oil use, the Environment Protection Agency announced this week.
In fact, US heavy duty vehicles should emit at least 16% less CO2 than their European counterparts under the new rule, according to an analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) last month, which the Guardian has seen.
Gina McCarthy, the EPA’s administrator, told the Guardian: “It is very clear that we are going to be moving out well ahead of any other country in the development of these standards. We will be driving these technologies and as result we will benefit from them more than any other country.”
Although medium and heavy duty lorries only make up 4% of road traffic, they also suck up 22% of US oil transport demand, and that figure is rising fast.
The emissions cut from honing their fuel economy would be “roughly equal to the greenhouse gases associated with the electricity and power use from all US residences for one year”, McCarthy said.
Under the new rule, heavy duty trucks made in 2027 will be 25% more carbon efficient than models built in 2018, saving drivers $170bn in fuel costs and creating a $230bn net benefit to society, the EPA said.
The standard is thought unlikely to deliver the fuel savings of 54.5 miles a gallon promised by Obama in his first term. A boom in sales of trucks and sports-utility vehicles triggered by cheap gasoline prices may have pushed that out of reach.
But it was still hailed as a “significant milestone” for future generations by Anthony Foxx, the US transport secretary.
The commercial vehicles rule will apply to semi-trucks, large pickup trucks, vans, buses and work trucks, and cut fuel costs by about $170bn, according to the EPA. It will be phased in over three stages, in 2021, 2024 and 2027.
Brussels will pay close attention to the new law, after an EU proposal for similar post-2020 targets last month pledged to regulate trucks for the first time.
One European car industry source told the Guardian: “This announcement is obviously good news for the climate and for the INDC commitments made by the world’s states in Paris. But it is important for car manufacturers that – as well as a framework and visibility – we are given the time to implement [the rule].”
McCarthy said that aspects of the proposal might be seen as “too aggressive” in some industry quarters, but that the EPA believed they “hit the absolute sweet spot,” balancing cost-effective emissions and fuel-saving reductions.
Heavy goods vehicles make up 6% of Europe’s total greenhouse gas emissions – more than aviation or international shipping.
Between 1990 and 2010 their emissions soared by 36%, and EU officials see little chance of a decline without policy action, which they have pledged to bring forward before the end of 2017.
A limit of 95 grams of CO2 per kilometre has already been set for cars by 2021 and campaigners warn that if European trucks do not follow the American example, they will soon be overtaken in the clean vehicles race.
“This is as much about environmental leadership as about innovation,” said Stef Cornelis, the cleaner and safer trucks officer at the Transport and Environment campaign group.
“If the EU wants to remain the world’s leader in truck manufacturing, it should table a fuel efficiency standard for trucks in 2017 with a more ambitious 2025 target than the US one. Anything less will mean further stagnation for trucks made in Europe.”
Europe is currently the largest heavy duty vehicle market without efficiency standards.
The ICCT forecasts that the EU bloc will fall behind the US in tractor-trailer efficiency in 2020. By 2030, HDVs will account for 45% of Europe’s on-road emissions by 2030, on present trends.
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