BP is to study the potentially disruptive impact of 3D printing on oil markets if the rise of small-scale digital manufacturing reduces the need to ship goods around the world.
The UK group’s chief economist, Spencer Dale, said his team was planning to look at whether 3D printing could unravel some of the complex global supply chains that have provided a strong source of growth for the oil industry in recent decades.
<aside aria-hidden="true" data-trackable="related-box" role="complementary">BP says it is studying the potential impact of 3D printing on oil demand in the event that manufacturing becomes local and global shipping declines.
Freight transportation accounts for more than a fifth of total oil consumption, much of it involving long-distance shipments across oceans and continents. Some of this would disappear if 3D printing spurred a shift away from mass production back towards local manufacturing in the markets where products are sold.
</aside>Goods ranging from types of medical implants to jet engine parts are already made using 3D printing, which allows manufacturing of physical objects based on three dimensional digital models, and the technology is expected to expand into many other areas.
Worldwide sales of 3D printers are forecast to rise from about 455,000 last year to 6.7m in 2020, according to Gartner, the research company, which described the “rapid transformation” of 3D printing into a “mainstream technology . . . used to create prototypes, augment manufacturing processes and produce finished products”.
Any significant impact on oil companies is likely to remain a long way off. In its latest annual outlook last week, BP foresaw global oil demand continuing to grow until the 2040s, with freight transport, especially in Asia, driving much of the expansion.
However, Mr Dale said 3D printing would be added to the growing range of disruptive forces considered by his team in their long-term forecasting, alongside factors such as rising use of electric vehicles and other forms of renewable power.
Oil companies are under pressure from some investors to become more open about the risks posed to their businesses by the shift from fossil fuels — and to think harder about how to respond.
Mr Dale, former head of financial stability at the Bank of England, was hired by BP in 2014 to help it navigate the changing economic and energy landscapes.
He has shown a willingness to raise awkward questions and reach uncomfortable conclusions, including his assertion this week that there was much more recoverable oil in the ground than the world was likely to need before demand goes into terminal decline.
As well as the rise of electric vehicles, Mr Dale said that more efficient forms of vehicle use, such as car sharing and pooling and autonomous vehicles, would also curb petrol consumption. However, he argued these pressures on demand would be outweighed by continued growth in conventional vehicles in Asia.
Kingsmill Bond, energy analyst at Trusted Sources, an investment research company, said that, for all Mr Dale’s articulation of the disruptive threats, his forecasts failed to grasp the scale of change facing the energy industry.
Mr Bond believes China will lead the charge towards clean technology, forcing oil demand into decline in the 2020s. “People in the oil industry are in denial about what is happening,” he added.
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