French oil major TotalEnergies predicts global oil demand will peak after 2030 in its two most likely energy transition scenarios, neither of which will limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius in line with the Paris Climate agreement, it said in its annual energy outlook report this week.
That's primarily due to a growing population, sluggish power grid investments and slower-than-expected sales of electric vehicles worldwide, according to Sustainability and Strategy Director Aurelien Hamelle.
"There are around 4.5 billion people today with insufficient access to energy in the so-called 'global south'... If you add to that the expected growth in population to 2050 you would need to multiply current energy production by four to pull them out of energy poverty," Hamelle said at a press conference.
The annual report presented three scenarios: current trends, a moderately ambitious "momentum" scenario, and a "rupture" scenario aligned to the Paris Agreement.
TotalEnergies opens new tab said the world was currently on track to consume 90 million barrels of oil per day in 2050, with demand peaking after 2035 based on current trends.
By contrast, rival BP (BP.L), opens new tab expects oil to peak next year, with consumption in 2050 around 75 million barrels per day. Under Total's momentum scenario, oil demand would peak just after 2030 and fall to 70 million barrels per day in 2050.
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Full article TotalEnergies sees global oil demand peaking after 2030 | Reuters
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