Last month, UK oil and gas major Shell released its annual Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Outlook, laying out the bullish case for LNG market growth over the next 15 years.
This year, the company increased its demand expectations to between 630 and 718 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by 2040, 1-5% higher than last year’s projection.
However, the latest outlook is heavy on investor optimism but light on details. It provides less justification for bullish demand scenarios than in previous years, and key demand drivers that featured prominently in 2024 were downplayed or omitted entirely.
As a result, Shell’s underlying rationale for rapid LNG demand growth appears increasingly fragile. While higher projections justify the company’s sizable LNG portfolio, they mask fundamental flaws in the LNG growth thesis and financial risks for investors.
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