In a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook indicates the cost of oil per barrel could decrease by $18 and in return lower retail gasoline prices.
"We expect the Brent crude oil price will decline significantly in the coming months, falling from $68 per barrel in August to $59 per barrel on average in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25) and around $50/b in early 2026," the EIA wrote in its September 2025 report.
"The price forecast is driven by large oil inventory builds as OPEC+ members increase production." As of Wednesday morning at 8:55 a.m. CDT, MarketWatch reports Brent crude oil prices at $66.93 per barrel.
The Short-Term Energy Outlook from the EIA also shows a decrease in the overall price of gasoline since 2024. Retail gasoline prices in 2024 averaged $3.30 per gallon, $3.10 thus far in 2025 and has a forecast of $2.90 in 2026.
Full story Gas prices may lower in 2026, Brent crude oil forecast at $50 a barrel
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